Carmelo made an ice cold buzzer beater tonight at home vs. Chicago (his 14th game-winner in his career according to Chris Marlowe, the play-by-play broadcaster…a number that borderline shocked me).  Ice cold sounds just about perfect.  The shot was executed beautifully, but with little effort, almost sniper-like.  He was content with himself but not ecstatic for the team victory.  He had a stomach flu (WAHH!!), ended up with 22 points and deferred to his teammates until the 4th quarter (his words exactly).  My general sentiments on ‘Melo in 100 words…

he WILL go to either the Knicks or Nets, and the glaring deficiencies in his game (effort put forth on 75% of offensive possessions, 25% defense) will become evident because of the move and the lack of complementary supporting pieces on either team (different blog will address this).  The strongest infrastructure most conducive to winning NOW is in Denver.  But hey, fuck it.  LaLa and the lights of the big city beckon.  In the annals of history, he will ultimately be seen as a less slithery George Gervin.  But without the passion.  Equally ring-less fingers.  I do not like Carmelo.

Shanahan

He’s wacky, stubborn as balls, dishonest, manipulative, possibly halfway to senile, and flaunts an ego that (depending on who you ask) is perceived as anywhere from overly inflated to properly inflated.  He also might be the best thing to happen to Redskin fans since Gibbs version 1.0.  Donovan McNabb…is not.  Shut the hell up and let Shanny yank him if it gets his rocks off.  6 points down or 18 points down, Washington wasn’t winning that fucking game.

If You Like Betting on Friday Night Directional Michigan MAC Games (like this guy)

The public is on the Over 52 here (Western MI vs. Central MI).  I guess on the surface it looks like your typical intraconference MAC meatslangin’ fest.  I’m skeptical moreso because of CMU’s QB play over the last two games.  Against two incredibly pedestrian passing defenses (Northern Illinois and Bowling Green), Ryan Radcliff threw for a combined 310 yards and only 2 TDs to go with 4 INTs.  Western Michigan has arguably the best pass D CMU has faced this season.  Their overall numbers are skewed to the middle of the pack after getting aerially boned out-of-conference by the likes of Notre Dame, Michigan State and Idaho.  But…I like them to shut down a suddenly shaky MAC offensive attack.  Dan LeFevour isn’t walking back into the Chippewa locker room anytime soon.  Let’s say Broncos 27, Chippewas 20.

Due Date (opening 11/5)

Before dropping $10 on a ticket to this over-promo’ed flick…do we have any audio/visual confirmation that Robert Downey Jr. is or has ever been funny?  Not to mention only 40% fresh on rottentomatoes.com.  I’ll wait 9 months and ship Comcast my $4.99.

If You Like Betting on Friday Night Conference USA Games

Don’t.  What are you, a fucking degenerate?  Instead, move to the hardwood and bet…

Wizards/Knicks Over 209.5

New York is back to Madison Square Garden the night following a general click-on-all-cylinders offensive performance.  Gallinari seems to have found his stroke.  The Wiz have laughable post defense and Amare Stoudemire probably can’t be called a “post player”, but he can still drop 30+ in the paint and on jumpers without breaking much of a sweat.  The line has moved as much as 3 points in some books with an overwhelming percentage of bets on the over.  I think smart money and dumb money are in agreement here.  I don’t see how New York doesn’t put up at least 115.  Knicks 116, Wiz 102.

Bulls/Celtics 1H U97.5

Small sample size, but Boston’s M.O. so far this season has been to keep the screws tight defensively right from the opening tip (42.6 average 1H points against), then let the opponent establish more of an offensive rhythm in the second half.  This line sits at 97.5 because Chicago has generally come out lackluster on the defensive end, leading to fairly gawdy first half totals.  I like the better team (that would be Boston) to establish and control the tempo at home for the first 24.

Ken Jeong

I’m about done with him.  Loved him as Katherine Heigl’s asshole obstetrician in Knocked Up…overrated as The Dude With the Little Chinese Nuts in The Hangover…lost even more steam as the King in Role Models (funny movie otherwise)…and I think this is the officially the tipping point.  Ken needs to ride the bench for a year or so.

Nut of the Month

I’m like 3/4 of the way through a bag of Planters’ Raging Buffalo Wing Peanuts and the jury is still out.  Most baffling snack I have ever eaten.  The flavor powder they’re coated in is fucking magic.  It’s like sucking the wing sauce off a wing.  Pretty much a three-second flavorgasm.  But then the dust evaporates on your tongue and the taste fades into nothing but peanut.  It’s disappointing.  Plus, what product whiz over at Planters decided “buffalo wing” and “peanut” was a legitimate combination?  Imagine eating those two foods back-to-back.  It’s fucking weird.  I’m guessing this is frowned upon, but if it weren’t I would consider sucking each peanut bone dry, throwing the bare nuts into some tupperware, then coming back tomorrow and having a bowl of regular unsalted peanuts.  Pretty nasty.  Whatever, I have an apartment all to myself.  Don’t tell me how to live my life.

U46.5 in Florida/Vanderbilt

This line hasn’t really budged a lick even though 95% of the betting action is being reported on the Over.  It sounds like many smart folk with much larger bankrolls than me are convinced otherwise.  Similarly, the Alabama/LSU line has hung steady at around -6.5 for the week with 89% of the public  taking ‘bama and laying the six-and-a-hook.  I really like the Tide in this game, which I think makes me a dope.  Also, the fact that I’m too pussy to take LSU and the points reaffirms this.

From the Who Gives a Shit Bureau

Over Labor Day weekend my apartment complex decided to close the pool for “repairs”.  Both the pool and the hot tub were drained and inoperable for the next two months.  Two months, mind you, that featured a daily average temp of around 72 degrees.  Now for some reason, as of yesterday, we’re up and running again.  Like nothing ever happened.  It’s November 5th!  This isn’t bitterness talking…I don’t frequent the pool…but when I come home for lunch in the afternoon on your average warm weekday it might as well be fucking Rehab at the Hard Rock (minus the talent).  It’s a goddamn show.  I hate generalizing, but if you’re on your sixth Coors Light at 12:30 in the afternoon on a Tuesday, you’re either independently wealthy or that 12-pack you’re halfway through is the absolute last thing you should be spending your no money on.  There’s no in-between here.  Anyway, point being…depriving these folks of their pool for two solid months of 65-80 degree weather is egregious.

Disappearing Gym Guy

Where the hell did you go?  Your water bottle is sitting there on the floor.  So is a sweat rag.  There are weight plates on the bar.  I’ve been waiting for your machine for at least fifteen minutes and you are nowhere in the vicinity.  It reminds me of this Mitch Hedberg joke:

When you go to a restaurant on the weekends and it’s busy they start a waiting list. They start calling out names, they say “Dufresne*, party of two. Dufresne, party of two.” And if no one answers they’ll say their name again. “Dufresne, party of two, Dufresne, party of two.” But then if no one answers they’ll just go right on to the next name. “Bush, party of three.” Yeah, what happened to the Dufresnes? No one seems to give a shit. Who can eat at a time like this? People are missing! You fuckers are selfish. The Dufresnes are in someone’s trunk right now, with duct tape over their mouths. And they’re hungry. That’s a double whammy. Bush, search party of three, you can eat when you find the Dufresnes.

* – Bonus points to Mitch for using Dufresne in this joke.

The only three acceptable and justifiable explanations for your disappearance are the following:  murdered, kidnapped, or violently pooping.  I know you don’t have the audacity to ignorantly abandon all of your shit next to the machine, leaving anxious gymgoers idling in confused limbo.  Oh wait, is that you over by the cable crosses?  It is!  Fuck you.

Mistimed Awkward Door-Holding Guy

This uber-chivalrous fellow prefers to hold the door for any human being on his entire fucking horizon, no matter how unreasonably long the distance may be for the other person to traverse.  I hate this guy mainly because I never fail to look like a jackass.  I always end up doing some sort of retarded jog/speed-walk combination as if the front doors are quickly slamming shut and I will be locked out of work forever.  Not to mention I swear like half of these fuckers instantly recognize they mistimed the shit out of the door-hold, regret their decision, and then become visibly agitated at me because I’m taking so long to get to the door.  Yeah, it’s my fault I’m just barely out of the car and you decided to be completely unnecessary.  Can we set some sort of protocol here?  My office building has the perfect natural set-up to prevent such a circumstance: there’s the curb, some sidewalk, 4 steps, and then about 12-14 feet of distance between the top step and the front door.  If I’ve made it up the steps when you make it to the door, please feel free to initiate this gesture.  If I’m still on the steps. please don’t feel obligated, and I might be slightly annoyed if you do.  If I’m still on the sidewalk, fuck you.  If my feet are still on the pavement of the parking lot, may God have mercy on your soul.

Undecided at a Drive-Thru and Holding Up a Line of Cars Guy

Is this the first time you’ve eaten at a Wendy’s, sir?  Wait…it’s the 761st time?  What the hell’s the matter with you?  I could instantly rattle off 97% of Wendy’s menu right now.  On my way to the Wendy’s I quickly assess what I’m in the mood for and prepare in advance for a speedy order.  I don’t just black out, wake up at a Wendy’s drive-thru and think “Holy fuck, how did I get here?  Let me collect myself and examine my menu options.”  It’s not written in Sanskrit.  Stop staring at the menu like you were just beamed here this morning from a fucking starburst galaxy.    To me this is no different than eating in a fancypants restaurant, being asked “soup or salad?” by the server, and then sending him away so you can deliberate your choice for five minutes.  Unless you are ordering for a large group of people and it literally takes a minute or two to read off an order, 30 seconds is the maximum acceptable time to spend on this task at any of the larger chain fast-food restaurants.  Third time at an Arby’s or a Sonic  in your life?  Fine, I guess this is an exception.  Take an extra second and sort it out.

Irritated You’re Ordering Directly Behind Him While He’s Sitting at a Bar Guy

This one’s pretty self-explanatory, but completely irritating nonetheless.  I’m going out of my way to contort my body like fucking Neo to avoid invading this douchebag’s personal bar space.  Do you think I want physical contact with you?  I just want my Beam and Coke.  Is the Stare of Death really necessary, homes?  This guy is usually either a) an angry alcoholic drinking alone, or b) spitting game and on the defensive razor’s edge in case anyone tries to move in on his lady friend.  She looks like A.J. Ogilvy, dude…no worries, she’s all yours.  I’m just thirsty.

Happy Friday.

Enberg’s Verizon LG pre-tip promo pales drastically in comparison to Gus Johnson’s.  LIFE’S…gooooooood.

No wager parties in the balance.  Keeping this in-game blog amusing is my only driving motivation behind carefully following this second game.  I desperately want to see a tight one (that’s what…he said?).

A theme underlying the entirety of this tourney so far: the officials’ legitimate hesitation to blow the whistle.  Part of me enjoys the refreshing physicality of these games; the other part of me starts to worry when several startlingly toe the line between basketball and no-holds-barred street fight.

11-6, Kentucky.  A reliable source, friend, and WVU alum insists Bob Huggins is a raging, off-the-charts-creepy boozehound.  The DUI probably peeled off one layer, but apparently it goes much deeper.  I don’t think he’s Larry Eustachy-level “chummy with the coeds” type party-coach…more like  leering at coeds alone in the corner, possibly-comatose-type party-coach.  To his credit, no female student groping parties have been reported.  Stay tuned.

Fuck, this game’s still going on.

Dennis Kilicli’s just checked in for WVU.  Look at the shit that’s sprouting around his face and chin.  He’s a Turkish Baron Davis.

Dick Enberg drops this informative nugget:  apparently John Wall went with #11 on his jersey because the two “L”s in his last name reminded him of two “1″s.  Pretty perceptive.

John Wa11 just egregiously violated the backcourt.  No call.  He’s not in the NBA yet, refs.  Fuck.  Replay/multiple DVR rewinds confirmed…off Joe Mazzulla’s right hand, then off Wall’s left foot/shin.

Patrick Patterson attempts a confusing backwards “assist” to Mazzulla as he breaks free towards the WVU hoop, John Wa11 with a nice block.

WVU with nary a 2-point field goal.  There are under seven minutes remaining in the half.  And they’re only down four.  This entire tournament has been an offensive drought.  Not sure why anyone would bet an over.  Unless you tease it down and are mentally retarded.

Dick Enberg clarifies that 5 3-point field goals equals 15 points.  “5 times 3 equals 15.”  Glad to hear that at 97 years of age, Dick hasn’t shredded the piece of brain matter that can recall multiplication tables.  I kid because I love; he’s fantastic.

“3 squared…3 cubed…mathematically, 3 is better than 2,” instructs Dick as Da’Sean Butler drains WVU’s 7th three (still no twos).  Not sure it can get much better than an in-game remedial algebra lesson from Mr. Enberg.

Bill “can financially support him”Self to provide some halftime analysis shortly.  Are we sure he’s qualified?

Severely wished I had the audio for DeAndre Liggins’ technical foul.

Halftime score: WVU 28, Kentucky 26.  WVU: 0-15 from 2, 8-15 from 3.  What the fuck is going on.  Harvey’s standing at the front of my apartment, his face millimeters away from the door, breathing violently through his nostrils like Hannibal Lecter or a rapist.  Let’s take him outside and check for his acceptance letter to Duke University.

Gotta top off this cocktail.  Out of Monster.  Good thing Red Bull is also at the Helen Reddy in my sparkling refrigerator.

Fuck!  I completely forgot this was Dick Enberg’s last NCAAB telecast!  I really will miss Dick.  A jovial dude whose immense love for basketball is paralleled only by his rapid and hilarious rate of dementia.  Stick around one more March, Dick.  I’m begging you.

And, as if this couldn’t get any better, the Mayor of Syracuse declared March 27th to be Dick Enberg Day.  Too much to digest here.

Demarcus Cousins just steered this game into homoerotic territory, attempting to give Butler an in-game hand job and smacking him hard across the nuts in the process.  “Obviously not intentional,” adds Jay Bilas.  Glad we cleared that up.

18:06 in the 2nd half, WVU hits its first 2-pointer.

40-31 WVU, 14:46 remaining.  Kentucky is emotionally deteriorating.  They’re entering “stomping around, crying toddler” territory.  Demarcus Cousins is acting like a little bitch.

Quick tangent…I watched the movie “Brothers” last night (Gyllenhall, Portman, Spiderman in lead roles).  It really speaks to my puzzling and unquantifiable hatred of Tobey Maguire that he could be so spectacular in this film and upon its conclusion I actually hated him more.  What a douche.   Solid flick though.

Patterson throws in a garbage 2 in the paint to cut WVU’s lead to 5 while Enberg and Bilas awkwardly riff about Mazzulla and Wall starring in their own comedy show together.  REALLY don’t want Dick to go.

12:11 remaining.  47-36, WVU.  Kentucky is 0-13 from 3-point range.  Wa11 is 3-12 with 10 points and a quick close-up shot of his face curiously reveals large, NBA dollar-sign pupils.  Not sure he cares.

Funny I should say that…on cue, an absurd fast-break/penetration/off-balance finish by Wa11.  Breathtaking and nonchalant at the same time.  I want to see him in November.

A nice extended Keystone Cop, hot-potato basketball sequence headed into the under 8:00 timeout.  Apparently the ball is coated in feces or some sort of chlamydia.

Would love to see a close finish here but up until this point Kentucky has refused to make a focus party.  Down 8, 7:00 to go.

Eric (no discernible relation to Drew) Bledsoe bricks two free throws.  WVU up 12, 5:20 left.

Make that 14.  Warm up the Lexington bus!!

I really wish Dick had a better game to go out on…the ‘Cats are 11-23 from the free-throw line, 0-20 from 3.  Wa11, Cousins and Patterson have all mentally left the building to daydream about June and  shaking hands with David Stern.

Bilas is putting forth a valiant effort to retain CBS viewership.  “THIS GAME IS FAR FROM OVER.”  WVU up 14, 3:38 remaining.  Love your work Jay, but…

Well, let’s see here…first three made by Kentucky…4.76% from beyond the arc…violating the backcourt party on WVU…Kentucky ball, down 11…

Mountaineers really seizing the opportunity to slam the door on Kentucky here…or the exact opposite…’Cats only down 7, 1:43 left…

Apparently WVU has the only black dude on Planet Earth named “Wellington”…he makes 1 of 2 free throws, Wa11 “kisses” a three-pointer off the glass…Kentucky down 7…1:14 left…come on, let’s send Dickie E out in style!!

Money-line Butler-WVU parlay would have been sexy.  I make terrible bets all the time, how did I manage to avoid that one??

Kentucky did everything but chainsaw Butler’s arms off and no call for damn near 8 seconds.  COME ON, IT’S FUCKING DICK ENBERG DAY.

Book it.  WVU and Butler have punched their Final Four tickets.  Ridiculous.

One underrated highlight?  Joe Mazzulla damn near octupling(??) his season scoring average (2.2) with a career-high of 17.

Goodnight, Dick.  Appreciate the math lesson.  Really wish you would have slipped up and called WVU the West Mountain Virginianeers.  You were eloquent and flawless, and that’s not like you at all.

Kentucky from 3: 4-32, 12.5%

Anyway, it’s halftime of Kansas State-Butler and I’ve been casually following along while sifting through moldy cheddar cheese.  Few quick thoughts:

• Stunned at Butler’s run so far in this tournament.  If they’re a Final Four team, I’m allowed to drive legally.
• This is at least the second time I’ve heard Gus Johnson reference K-State’s secondary nickname as the “Doberman Pinschers”.  I guess the idea is once they smell fear, they’ll…eat you like a rabid dog or something.  Aren’t they actually the Wildcats??  Doesn’t that type of animal strike a bit more fear into the opposition than Dobermans??
• I have a live teaser going that involves an over 130 in this game.  Likely need double overtime here.  Probably should pack it in.  I talked myself into K-State having dead legs (which they do), allowing Butler the opportunity for least 60-65 points.  I figured K-State was good for 70 regardless.  I have nothing further to add here other than I’m a fucking moron.

Alright, second half kicking off.  I’ve got a large cocktail (Monster & vodka), and most importantly, my dog’s bowels are empty (he steamered the grass about 90 minutes ago).  I’ll be here for a while.

The other two components of my teaser are both underdogs (Butler and WVU) covering 8.5.  Feel pretty strongly about those.

Watching this game so far this tournament, I have to say I’m pretty impressed with Butler’s Gordon Hayward.  And, in all likelihood, so are pedophiles.

Along those lines, not sure who wouldn’t be a fan of Gayward as his nickname except for probably Gordon himself.

Clemente and Pullen are a combined 2-12 with 8 points with 16:00 left in the game.  And Gayward just drained a three.  Wake the fuck up, Dobermans.  No clue why Frank Martin’s eyeballs are still in his skull.

Pullen on the breakaway…2 points!

Can’t really explain why I’m rooting for K-State, but fuck Xavier for taking them into 2OT on Thursday night and leaving the Pinschers with a 19% chance to win this game.  Butler couldn’t be more inferior athletically.

Butler’s Shawn Vanzant just skeeted in his shorts a little bit and carried the basketball on a breakaway.  You haven’t won yet, Bulldogs.  Only up 8, 11:30 to go…but, K-State is shooting a “robust” 34% with only 4 three-point FGs attempted (one made).

“That’s basketball!” emotes Gus Johnson as Butler 5-passes on offense for a nice scoop layup by Matt (no discernible relation to Dwight) Howard.  I would be dismayed to find out that I was actually watching an entirely different sport.

“Frenetic pace,” adds Gus.  And horribly low-scoring.  Not sure how both are possible simultaneously, but it seems to be happening.  The real drama though?  Can I get 43 points in the final 7:30?  Zippy chance.  SHOOT SOME FUCKING FREE THROWS FELLAS.

Matt Howard looks like the kind of guy who’s asking for a punch in the face.

36 points needed, 5:50 remaining.  Why in Christ am I still calculating this??

The game has suddenly become tight (Butler up 1 with 4:00 to go) and I couldn’t be more irritated by this turn of events.  K-State behind 5-7 points down the stretch would have lent itself well to lots of garbage free throws and potentially a miracle over bet.  Overtime is my only hope.

Clemente with a teardrop to tie it!  54-54.  Likely very similar to the teardrops that fell down Frank Martin’s wife’s parents’ face when she brought Frank home to meet them for the first time.

Butler up 6, 54 seconds left, and Gus just Avery Juked us all into a fake commercial break.  “Back to Salt Lake in a minute…aaaand we’re gonna stay right here…”

No words to describe the poop panini that just occurred to end this game.  Bet crushed (pretty much from the opening tip), K-State out.  Butler in the Final Four??  Clemente/Pullen a combined 11-30 from the field.  Let’s move on to the next game quickly.  I need a new cocktail.  And a Bacon Turkey Bravo from Panera.  Moln.

Just had this conversation with my girlfriend:

Her: “Alright honey, I’m going over to Katie’s…I’ll take Harvey with me so you can have some time to yourself.”

Me (trying to be nice and boyfriendly): “Oh it’s okay, you can leave him here if you want…”

Her: “Really? Are you sure?”

Annnnnd I’m stuck with the dog.  Trifling.

I have no criteria for the order in which I select teams to be previewed; my only goal is to try and build up steam as I go along, saving the more interesting teams (to me, at least) toward the finish line.  Of course to get there I have to go over a speed bump like the Washington Nationals.  Fuck.

What’s pretty moln

Nationals Stadium.

Strasburg.

Nyjer Morgan got on-base almost 40% of the time once he got to Washington last year.  That won’t happen over a 162-game season, but .375 would be a nice way to kick off that lineup.

I think if you give Josh Willingham 550 ABs, *fairly* good things will happen.  His career splits vs. righties and lefties are startingly similar and I think he’s more than a platoon player.  Not gonna knock the world on its scrotum, but I think .280-30 is realistic.  Factor in Dunn and Zimmerman and that could be 100 home runs right there.

More to that general point, the 1 through 8 spots in the Nats lineup should be able to generate some runs.  But less than they will allow.  Much, much less.

I still like Elijah Dukes.

Actually digging into the statistics debunked my long-held belief that Ryan Zimmerman was the streakiest of hitters, prone to interminably awful slumps.  In reality, he’s not much different than your average hitter in terms of peaks and valleys.  He starts off slow (.248 BA and .710 OPS through April), gets hot in May (.295 and .865 in May), cools off in June (.261 and .743) and finishes strong (at least .290 and .835 OPS in the final three months).  I don’t think it’s wrong to expect a repeat of his *breakout* 2009.  Don’t see much more upside, though.

What’s not very moln

I take issue with Jason Marquis.  Not as a human being, he could very well be a swell bastard…but as a pitcher.  A $15 commitment over 2 years is an excusable investment, I just hate what he brings to the table.  Last year Colorado paid him just shy of $86,000 per strikeout.  Thank God he’s due for a pay cut this year.  Still, if you’re eating innings at the rate he does (216), 115 Ks leaves a lot to be desired.

Lannan’s inability to strikeout hitters is even slightly more Egregious Vazquez.  206.1 IP in 2009, 89 fucking Ks.  This article summarizes Lannan as a statistical enigma much better than I ever could.  Looking at a spray chart, low BABIPs across the board.  He’s gotta regress to the mean, right?  Especially when you factor in the low K-rate.  Suffice it say, skepticism remains.  I’m not a fan.

The crowds at Nationals Stadium and Nats fans in general.  You guys are terrible.  Plummeting attendance rates (24th in 2009, down from 19th in 2008) and a stadium filled only to half-capacity on most nights.  The “put a good product on the field” argument for non-attendance always confounds me, but that’s for another blog.  Also for another blog might be the general malaise of the city in terms of getting behind their teams.  Balls will be flying out of the park in 2010, I promise you that.  Nats’ balls and the opposition’s balls.  As a transient spectator, 9 to 7 games are fun. 

Pudge has had a hell of a career, but he hasn’t had an above-league- average OPS season since 2006.  So then the appeal must be his sage leadership and ability to handle a relatively young pitching staff, right?  Well…last year in Houston he caught the staff with the 4th worst ERA in the NL (granted, he was only an Astro through August 16th).  He spent the better part of 2008 with a Detroit team that wound up with a 4.90 team ERA and 3rd worst in the AL.  The 2007 Tigers were the 9th best staff in the AL by ERA.  Look, the long and short of it is that Pudge is now a rent-a-catcher past the point in his career where he can make chicken salad, yet teams keep handing him chicken shit (as the fella once said).

Matt Capps.

Atrocious defense.

Who knows what kind of Wang they’re gonna get once he’s healthy.  Not sure he can be relied upon.

Assigning a prominent bullpen role to this guy.

LINEUP

CF – Nyjer Morgan – .289, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 47 SB

2B – Adam Kennedy – .277, 8 HR, 65 RBI, 17 SB

3B – Ryan Zimmerman – .286, 29 HR, 92 RBI, .853 OPS

1B – Adam Dunn – .255, 42 HR, 113 RBI, .908 OPS

LF – Josh Willingham – .273, 28 HR, 82 RBI, .878 OPS

RF – Elijah Dukes – .276, 18 HR, 73 RBI, .784 OPS

C – Ivan Rodriguez – .258, 9 HR, 54 RBI, .683 OPS

SS – Cristian Guzman – .291, 5 HR, 48 RBI, .711 OPS

ROTATION

Jason Marquis – 12-16, 4.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 1.22 K/BB

John Lannan – 13-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.38 K/BB

Scott Olsen – 7-9, 4.93 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 2.11 K/BB

Really…Livan Hernandez? – Not worthy of projection.

J.D. Martin + Garrett Mockdraft + Craig Stammen = 13-22, 5.14 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 1.92 K/BB

The Nats really just don’t do it for me.  I remained utterly flaccid writing this preview.  Not even a wiggle down there, as Glenn Quagmire says.  A lot of pressure is on Marquis and Lannan to eat innings and keep the team in games until the Anointed One arrives.  I don’t think they have it in them.  Wake me after June 1.

PREDICTION

65-97, NL East Cellar.

I couldn’t be more excited for Doug Fister trying to insert himself into the back end of Seattle’s rotation.  It’s a pretty tight fit back there, Doug.  Not sure if there’s room.

That’s probably enough innuendo for the time being.  But seriously, I think they’re onto something up in the P-N-Dub.  Cliff Lee, SEAN Figgins, Jack Wilson.  Pitching and defense, I get it.  Problem is, everyone seems to be thinking the same thing.  The Mariners have been conspicuously anointed by most as favorites to win the AL West.

Let’s back up for a second.  Only San Diego and Pittsburgh scored fewer runs than Seattle’s 640 in 2009.  Only San Francisco had a worse team OBP than Seattle’s .314.  ZERO teams hit worse with runners in scoring position than Seattle, actually plummeting to .234 from .258.  It gets even worse.  At 29th in the majors, the Cubs hit .214 with RISP and two outs.  Seattle, dead last again, hit .196.  18 points lower.  BUT…get all the ducks OFF the pond?  .261, good for 11th in baseball.  What the fuck?  Even more confounding, they allowed 52 more runs than they scored.  Billy James’ formula pythagged them as a 75-win team last year.  How in God’s name did they win 85?  The short answer is good pitching (6th in majors in team ERA, 9th in bullpen ERA, 4th in BAA) and a shitload of luck.  Statistically, they were even below average across-the-board defensively.  My head hurts.

What’s pretty moln

The two rabbits at the top of the order are a lock to swipe 65-70 combined bases and generally be pains in the assholes of opposing pitchers.

7th, 8th and 9th inning security with Sean White (if he’s healthy), Mark Lowe (if he stays healthy) and David Aardsma.

Jack Wilson in the field.  And Franklin Gutierrez.  And Casey Kotchman.  Etcetera.  The pieces are here for a superficially solid defensive team (think Web Gems).  Shit, this is pretty much a back-handed compliment.

Cliff Lee and King Felix’s combined 2009 K/BB (398/114, or 3.49).

Seattle conceivably winning 45 of the combined 70 games CLee and Felix will start.

(I think) The possibility remains that Felix can actually improve on his 2009 season.  He’ll still be just 23 on Opening Day.

Adam Moore if they decide to throw him into the fire.

What’s not very moln

Not one legitimately imposing power threat anywhere in this lineup.  No one to do damage in the 3-hole.  Zippy cleanup hitter.   It’s a National League lineup in the wrong league.

Ken Griffey, Jr., Casey Kotchman, Ryan Garko and Ryan Langerhans taking at least 350 at-bats away from Mike Carp.

Jack Wilson at the plate and his “drawing a walk” allergy.  Ken Griffey, Jr. and his “retirement” allergy.

Serious rotation questions after The Big Two.  Ian Snells like teen spirit, for example.

The inevitable regression of Cliff Lee (however slight it may be).

The 8th time (and team) probably not being a charm for Milton Bradley.

The staggering infrequency with which Jose Lopez gets on base.  Speaking of Jose, he might have the most power potential of anybody in Seattle’s lineup and he will never hit 30 HR in his career (mark my words).   He’s probably best suited to hit 6th or lower.

Rob Johnson getting 300 ABs if they decide not to throw Adam Moore into the fire.

LINEUP

RF – Ichiro Suzuki – .329, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 28 SB

3B – Chone Figgins – .294, 3 HR, 65 RBI, 47 SB

LF – Milton Bradley – .279, 16 HR, 63 RBI, .386 OBP

CF – Franklin Gutierrez (is this jackass really gonna hit 4th?) – .288, 15 HR, 81 RBI, 19 SB

2B – Jose Lopez – .283, 25 HR, 87 RBI, .318 OBP

DH – Ken Griffey, Jr. – Who gives a flying fuck about his stats?  They’ll be atrocious.

1B – Casey Kotchman – .277, 12 HR, 59 RBI, .351 OBP

SS – Jack Wilson – .282, 10 HR, 51 RBI, .322 OBP

C – Rob Johnson – Mendoza flirtation and anywhere between 0 and 2 home runs.  Suit up.

ROTATION

Felix Hernandez – 17-8, 2.64 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.17 K/BB

Cliff Lee – 18-10, 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.74 K/BB

Ian Snell – 10-11, 4.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 1.89 K/BB

Ryan Rowland-Smith – 11-9, 4.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.13 K/BB

Doug Hardly Know Her – 7-9, 4.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.91 K/BB

Am I missing something here?  The more I worked on this preview, the less I liked the team.  In fact, I think I’ve grown to hate them.  Anaheim took a step backward, true, but I can’t see Seattle supplanting them as the class of the division in 2010.  Sorry.  It says here they’ll struggle mightily to get to 700 runs, strand Ichiro and Figgins so much it should be illegal, and ride Cliff Lee, King Felix and an improved defense straight on through to mediocrity.

PREDICTION

80-82, 3rd in the AL West

• I’m pelvis-deep in the college basketball season.  The conference tournaments are two weeks away.  Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away.  The Big Dance will soon follow.  I think I can already hear Digger Phelps pimping Murray State in the (apparently still??) “inevitable” 5-12 upset over an inconsistent major conference team.  I typed that sentence and then actually conducted a bit of research.  In the 16 5-12 matchups since 2006, the 12′s have pulled off the upset 7 times.  So, yeah…it still happens.  As an aside, don’t pick Murray State.  Even if they somehow end up 57-3.  Just trust me.  I could be wrong, but just keep in mind that however far off the mark my bracket may end up being, I can guarantee you it won’t be near as poopy as Hubert Davis‘.  This post wasn’t even supposed to be about NCAA Hoops.  Now I’m rambling.  Give me a break, it’s been a while.
• Winter Olympics 2010 and Evan Lysacek, or as I’ve been calling him repeatedly to my unamused girlfriend, Evan “Likes-the-Cack”.  He apparently doesn’t, but color me fooled.  This bullet point could not be  dripping with any more sarcasm.  I will say, though, that seeing Shaun “is” White soar to at least 20-feet over the half-pipe was, admittedly, pretty unreal.
• BASEBALL.  BEISBOL.  It’s berry berry good to me every year.  It does for me what football does for every other red-blooded American male.  Can’t help it, it’s the way I’m wired.  Also, there’s something about the over-saturation of inane storylines from months before training camp that have me semi-turned off to the NFL even before the regular season begins.  In most major sports the media does an impressively reprehensible job of taking every conceivable story angle and stomping it death; I just feel like the NFL elevates the 12-month, 24-hour minutia to an unbearable level.  Baseball’s polluted the world with steroids and Red Sox/Yankees overkill, that’s about it.  Pretty intolerable, yes, but when I caught wind of this story being reported a couple weeks ago, my fingers were shoved 3/4 of the way down my throat before I could finish the headline.  Are “Ochocinco” and Terrell Owens remotely compelling athletes in any way??  They both strike me as insecure, relatively stupid, attention-starved pot-stirrers who manage to be both unamusing and devoid of originality when they go for a stir.  Again, another debate for another time.  It’s a topic that demands more than 100 words.  But I have digressed yet again.

I’m here to talk about the CINCINNATI F’ING REDS.  Why start there?  Can’t give you a logical reason.  First team that popped in my Luther Head.  Maybe it’s because Danny Herrera is an obvious candidate, along with Stephon Curry, for membership in the “Athletes Who Look Creepily Fresh Out of Junior High” Club.  I’m putting myself on the spot here to come up with a creative name for my ongoing 2010 MLB Season Preview…

Let’s revisit that at another time.  Between now and opening night (Sunday April 4th, Yankees/Red Sox) I’ll try and devote a blog post to each of the 30 teams.  As a fun bonus, I’ll conclude each post with a very tentative lineup/5-man rotation, my own stat projections, and a won-loss record prediction.  Then, when October rolls around we can all look back at this pile of garbage and have a good, hearty laugh.

CINCINNATI REDS

What’s pretty moln:

Possibly a full, healthy season of Joey Votto without any crazy.  Aroldis Chapman on the horizon (maybe even by this summer).  Brandon Phillips’ consistency, both at the plate and in the field.  The untapped Jay Bruce potential.  Drew Stubbs evolving into a rich man’s Reggie Willits.  Orlando Cabrera’s “leadership and playoff experience” (in quotes for a reason).  The Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan catcher platoon oddly turned out to be the most effective defensive combination in the National League last season.  A nice bullpen (3.56 bullpen ERA, 3rd in the NL).  Johnny Cueto not possibly pitching as bad as he did over the last 3 months of 2009.  After St. Louis, a wide open Central Division.  What else…above-average infield defense?  Gross.

What’s not very moln:

Really, just a lifeless offense from top to bottom with very few legitimately intimidating major-league hitters.  2nd to last in the NL in team batting average.  2nd to last in on-base percentage.  4th from the bottom in OPS.  The Jay Bruce reality that will always be untapped potential.  Drew Stubbs devolving into Reggie Willits.  Johnny Cueto potentially pitching as bad for all of 2010 as he did over the final 3 months of 2009.  Orlando Cabrera.  The Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan catcher platoon is pretty much a train wreck offensively.  The two teamed up for a .260-8-48 line over a combined 538 at-bats in 2009.  Bronson Arroyo’s magical, pitch-ruining leg kick on top of the fact that he’s making 12 million in 2010 with realistically an 11% chance at a sub-4.00 ERA (I’m my own sabermatrician).  Utter mediocrity in the pitching rotation with little hope for significant improvement.  Zippy left-handers as the rotation is currently constructed.

LINEUP

CF – Drew Stubbs – .278, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 29 SB

SS – Orlando Cabrera – .272, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 16 SB

1B – Joey Votto – .317, 31 HR, 94 RBI, .393 OBP

2B – Brandon Phillips – .268, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 21 SB

LF – Johnny Gomes – .259, 27 HR, 75 RBI, .329 OBP

3B – Scott Rolen – .287, 14 HR, 72 RBI, .371 OBP

RF – Jay Bruce – .263, 31 HR, 88 RBI, .347 OBP

C – Ramon Hernandez – .266, 9 HR, 47 RBI, .343 OBP

ROTATION

Aaron Harang – 13-10, 3.94 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.44 K/BB

Bronson Arroyo – 11-15, 4.66 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.78 K/BB

Johnny Cueto – 12-9, 3.87 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.62 K/BB

Homer Bailey – 10-12, 4.18 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.85 K/BB

Justin Lehr – 6-10, 5.51 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 1.42 K/BB

PREDICTION

77-85, 4th in Central Division

Here are my quick, awful, utterly not-thought-out picks for a few of today’s games…

CLE (Huff) @ TOR (Rzepczynski) – TOR -1.5 (+125)

David huffs my swinging dong.  Plus, how can I not back a dude with 9 consonants in his name?  Especially when he’s able to string 7 of them together without a single interrupting vowel (this, of course, depends on how you feel about “y”.  I say it’s a yes-man who just wants to fit in with all the other letters surrounding it.  It has no backbone.).  Actual baseball information?  Rzep-beast allowed a scant 5 home runs in 243 1/3 career minor league innings prior to being called up a little over two weeks ago.  Pretty impressive.

SEA (Washburn) @ DET (French) – O9 (EVEN)

Listen to this Family Guy clip and plug in Jarrod Washburn for Life Cereal.  Microscopic WHIP and sub-3.00 ERA?  Who do you think you are?  As far as the over bet…even odds and Lucas French.  Giddy-up.

TAM (Kazmir) @ CHW (Buehrle) – CHW -1.5 (+180)

I’m not buying any sort of Scotty Kaz resurgence.  He’s two weeks removed from a pitching abortion (6.1 IP, 9 hits, 7 ER, 2 HR at Toronto) and he still walked 4 and needed 101 pitches to get through 6 innings his last start on July 18th.  Buehrle will do everything he can to keep this game near the two-hour mark.  Despite Mark’s best efforts, however, The Kaz will not allow such nonsense.  The Kaz is the opposite of efficient.  Inefficient, I think.

PIT (Morton) @ ARI (Haren) – U7.5 (-110)

Run, don’t walk, to this under.

MIN (Baker) @ LAA (Weaver) – MIN ML (+130)

Glen Perkins pitched pretty well for the Twins yesterday.  So did the rest of their staff.  Strike-throwing animal Scotty Baker dons the superhero cape and avenges that horrific 16-1 debacle.  And my fantasy squad’s K/BB ratio gets a nice shot in the arm.

SFG (Zito) @ ATL (Kamikaze) – O8.5 (-110)

The Braves have won 6 out of their last 7 and scored an average of 6.7 runs a game during that stretch.  Zito is absurd.  Look at his last four starts.  He can’t decide whether he wants to get absolutely shellacked or hunker down and actually pitch like an adequate major league starter.  I don’t think he throws a gem today.  Plus, I’m sure Kenshin Kawasaki’s got a few tasty meatballs of his own to serve up to Giants hitters.

“Kobe said that after the Lakers lost game six of the ’08 NBA Finals in Boston by 39 points, he was alone in the shower, just fuming.  He heard somebody walk in and assumed it was one of his teammates, or maybe a staff member.  Instead, he looked up, and it was Ron Artest (to this day, Kobe has no idea how Artest got into the locker room).  ‘I want to come help you,’ Artest said.  ‘If I can, I’m going to find a way to come to LA and give you the help you need to win a title.’”

Thanks, Ron.  Let’s do it.  Security?

Blogging about a Deadspin link to a Twitter page isn’t my idea of taking a light sabre and forging full speed ahead through cyberspace as a digital media pioneer, but in this instance I couldn’t quite restrain myself.

“i told hubby if i get a call some 20 yr old waitress he was doin offed him- me n kids boycotting the funeral -not EVEN joking”

I don’t even know where to begin here.  First of all, whew…thank you to Holly Robinson Peete for cracking this case.  Mystery solved.  Nashville’s homicide division, please pack it in and move on to the next head-scratcher.  Second of all, I’m not sure what’s more techno-apocalyptic…the fact that a D-minus-list “actress”, via a sloppy 25-some-odd word Twitter post, can openly speculate about the circumstances of a high-profile murder investigation and how she would react if her “hubby” behaved the same way…or the fact that I’m sitting here in a blog addressing such garbage.  Third of all, I would love to get into the wayback machine and tackle this topic as if the McNair events and retarded Twitter revolution happened in 1995.  Then it might actually have a SHRED of cultural relevance.  Holly Robinson Peete was the Nubian bimbo on Hangin’ With Mr. Cooper, and her husband Rodney was the secondary catalyst (behind Barry Sanders, of course) for the Detroit Lions’ unstoppable Tecmo Super Bowl run-and-shoot 5-wide spread offense.  Would Rodney hand it off to Barry?  Find Robert Clark on the deep post route?  Dink it to Richard Johnson on the short in?  Ignore Aubrey Matthews completely?  Get sacked while trying to figure out how the hell Terry Greer earned a roster spot?  Or run it himself?  The options were limitless and the computer’s defense was helpless and easy to toy with.